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Quantifying, Predicting and Exploiting Uncertainty - MIT conducts real–time experiments in the East China Sea / Taiwan / Kuroshio region

MIT researchers led by Professor Pierre Lermusiaux are currently conducting real-time ocean physics and acoustic experiments in the Taiwan Strait and north of Taiwan, building on discoveries made over the previous five years in probabilistic sonar performance prediction, integrated ocean-acoustic modeling, multidisciplinary data assimilation, ocean predictability, multi-scale custom climatologies and autonomous underwater platforms.

This demonstration of concept exercise is part of the Quantifying, Predicting and Exploiting Uncertainty (QPE) initiative, which will integrate these discoveries to improve performance prediction and reduce sonar detection uncertainties. The objectives of QPE are to:

1. Further develop and integrate methodologies, and perform field demonstration, of the use of in-situ data together with integrated (ocean, transmission loss and ambient noise) assimilative predictive models and adaptive sampling methods to improve sonar system performance and prediction.
2. Learn how to assimilate deep water acoustic observations to assist in initialization of regional ocean models.
3. Study the limits of predictability of a meandering jet interacting with topography.
4. Study the connection between nonlinear internal wave activity on the shelf and the meandering jet adjacent to the shelf.
5. Map out a Concept of Operations (CONOPS) for an end-to-end evaluation of acoustic impact and identify which operational naval elements should participate in each step.

During this real-time exercise the MIT team has provided a series of forecasts of ocean dynamical and acoustical conditions based on in-situ observations gathered by Taiwanese and US researchers. These observations are emailed from the ship or lab to MIT and incorporated into the simulations. The ability to generate and disseminate acoustical and ocean dynamics forecasts that are coupled in real-time is an ability unique to the MIT team. During the course of the exercise it has been confirmed that an estimate of the transport through the Taiwan Strait is critical to accurately forecasting the dynamics of the region. Impacts of tidal forcing, Kuroshio meanders and Typhoons are also being studied.

The team expects to integrate these discoveries to improve performance prediction and reduce sonar detection uncertainties but also develop new methods for ocean and climate uncertainty predictions. To demonstrate how the components fit together and how a future end-to-end system could work in support of fleet exercises, an integrated field demonstration is scheduled for 2009 in this East China Sea - Taiwan - Kuroshio region.

Visit the real-time results and findings: http://mseas.mit.edu/Sea_exercises/QPE/index.html

Research Website: http://mseas.mit.edu/Research/QPE/index.html

 

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